Wall Street ponders Rubin 's role if Clinton wins .
Donna Sells
NEW YORK
The outcome of the November elections emerged as a hot topic on Wall Street this week as financial pundits debated whether Robert Rubin might forgo a second term as Treasury secretary if President Clinton is re-elected .
Concern centred on the currency markets since Rubin 's tour de force has been his unflagging support of the dollar .
Speculation that Rubin might not stay in his post grew after he sidestepped questions about any future Cabinet post during television interviews at the Democratic convention in Chicago this week .
Should Rubin leave , Wall Street would worry that he might take his strong-dollar policy with him .
Rubin 's predecessor at the Treasury , Lloyd Bentsen , was viewed with suspicion by some in the financial markets who thought he had tried to push down the dollar to gain an edge in trade negotiations with Japan .
" Obviously , under the Clinton administration , we 've seen two distinctively different dollar policies , " said Chris Widness , an international economist at Chase Securities Inc. " Under Rubin , the U.S. has certainly looked for a strong dollar . "
That strategy , backed up by timely instances of joint central bank intervention , helped the dollar battle back from post-Second World War lows of 1.3438 German marks on March 8 , 1995 , and 79.75 Japanese yen on April 19 , 1995 .
Currently , the dollar stands at about 1.48 marks and 109 yen .
Rubin was widely hailed as the architect of the dollar 's comeback , using skills and expertise gained in 26 years on Wall Street , part of which were spent as co-chairman of Goldman , Sachs and Co .
Inc .
" Rubin has done a fine job in that position , " said Michael Faust , a portfolio manager at Bailard , Biehl and Kaiser , which manages just under $ 1 billion in global stocks and bonds .
" Anyone who would come in there to replace him would have awfully big shoes to fill . "
Fear that a new Treasury secretary might favour a return to Bentsen-era policy could spell trouble for financial markets .
Some overseas investors might shy away from buying U.S. stocks and bonds or even sell them when the dollar is weakening .
As for U.S. Treasury securities , Widness explained that Alan Greenspan 's reappointment as chairman of the Federal Reserve and the outlook for the federal budget were more important than whether Rubin continues at the Treasury .
" Although , if we did get someone that was seen as looking for a dollar depreciation , it would probably hurt capital flows to the United States , " said Widness , adding that could hurt U.S. stocks and , to a lesser degree , bonds .
Still , markets may have little to fear from any Rubin successor because the firm dollar policy has yielded positive results .
If that is true , then any new Treasury chief would need to be as effective as Rubin in convincing markets that the White House does indeed want a strong currency .
" If he left , the first question people would ask the next guy is , ' What 's your view on the dollar ? '
" said Michael Perelstein , portfolio manager of MainStay International Funds .
" And all I can say as a piece of advice is that they 'd better say exactly the same thing ( as Rubin ) , if not stronger , " Perelstein said . "
Otherwise , you get selling out of Tokyo and Frankfurt again . "