Wall St speculates about Santa Fe savior .
Brendan Intindola
NEW YORK 1996-12-06
Homestake Mining Co tops Wall Street 's list as the most likely white knight buyer for Santa Fe Pacific Gold Corp if Santa Fe rejects unsolicited suitor Newmont Mining Corp .
Santa Fe is so far mum on the more than $ 2 billion stock swap takeover proposal from Newmont , announced Thursday .
Wall Street , since the bid , has speculated that any deal between Newmont and Santa Fe would be a " bear hug , " or a reluctantly negotiated agreement where the buyer is not necessarily a friendly suitor .
Newmont said the companies have had previous contact , though declined to detail the encounters .
Analysts predict Santa Fe will go to the highest bidder , and that if a rival buyer is found , Newmont may not be able to match its offer .
They said the Santa Fe deal , which includes desirable Nevada mining territory , would only payoff for Newmont longer term .
Newmont , in fact , will not benefit from the Santa Fe acquisition on an earnings basis for at least two years , which also limits its capacity to raise its offer .
Any deal , friendly or hostile , would almost assuredly be a stock swap , which is necessary to preserve the tax-free , pooling-of-interest accounting , they said .
Analysts and arbitrageurs immediately ruled out Barrick Gold Corp and Bre-X Minerals Ltd as Santa Fe saviors because they are locked in negotiations over their splitting Indonesia 's Busang vast gold deposit .
Placer Dome Inc too was considered unlikley because it is focusing on geographic expansion in areas that do match Santa Fe 's Nevada , South America and Central Asia presence , they said .
A Homestake spokesman was not immediately available to comment on speculation that it tops the list .
Homestake , based in San Francisco , operates gold mines in the United States , Australia , Chile and Canada .
Earnings in 1995 were $ 0.22 per share , or $ 30.3 million , on revenues of $ 746.3 million .
Santa Fe is headquartered Albuquerque , N.M. and reported 1995 earnings of $ 0.30 per share , or $ 40 million , on revenues of $ 350 million .
Santa Fe has mining and exploration operations in Nevada , California , Montana , Canada , Brazil , Australia , Chile , Kazakstan , Mexico and Ghana .
PaineWebber analyst Marc Cohen said he lowered his rating on Newmont to neutral from attractive today because if Newmont merged with Santa Fe , investors would have to wait until the second half of 1998 to realize earnings accretion .
" I think Homestake could come in as a white knight , but how much is someone willing to come in above the Newmont number .
One would have to outbid by at least 15 percent , but there is going to be a ( Santa Fe ) deal with someone , " he said .
" Longer term , two to three years out , ( a Newmont-Santa Fe deal ) is positive , it does all the right things .
But in the near-term it is , at worst , neutral , " the analyst added .
Newmont proposed to Santa Fe a stock-swap merger at a ratio of 0.33 Newmont shares for each Santa Fe shares .
In Friday New York Stock Exchange trade , Newmonth was off 1/2 to 46-5/8 while Santa Fe added 1/4 to 15-1/8 .
" Newmont said it wants to discuss a friendly deal with Santa Fe , which is almost always a euphemism for ' We have more money in our pocket , ' " said an arb , referring to a possible sweetened bid from Newmont .
Two other arbs called Newmont 's move a " a 32 cent bid " because there is no formal tender offer , only the proposal letter " mailed " to Santa Fe 's board .
-- Wall Street Desk , 212-859-1734 .